Trump says US economy faces transition with 60% recession risk

President Donald Trump acknowledged the U.S. economy is undergoing a transition period and did not rule out the possibility of a short-term recession during a recent interview on NBC’s “Meet the Press.”

“Anything can happen, but I think we’re going to have the greatest economy in the history of our country,” stated Trump when asked about the chance of a recession.

“Look, yeah, it’s — everything’s OK. What we are — I said, this is a transition period. I think we’re going to do fantastically,” he added, emphasising his focus on long-term economic stability and stating he was not worried about a recession.

Trump’s comments followed the release of the first negative U.S. Gross Domestic Product (GDP) report in nearly three years.

The Department of Commerce reported a 0.3 percent year-over-year contraction in GDP for the first quarter of 2025.

Economic analysts have linked this slowdown to Trump’s America First trade policies, including tariffs imposed on various imports.

However, Trump dismissed these claims, attributing the current economic challenges to policies from the previous administration under Joe Biden.

He described the situation as an “overhang” inherited from Biden’s tenure and criticised Biden’s economic approach.

“We came in on January, these are quarterly numbers, and I was very against everything that Biden was doing in terms of the economy, destroying our country in so many ways,” he stated.

The negative GDP outcome has raised concerns on Wall Street about a potential recession.

Prior to the GDP report, JPMorgan had estimated a 60 percent probability of recession, citing the impact of aggressive tariff policies on economic growth.

“The tariff measures have introduced uncertainty and slowed trade, contributing to recession risks,” a spokesperson for JPMorgan noted.