The Daily: Ark Invest outlines $2.4 million bitcoin bull case, decentralized AI gets a $50 million boost from Paradigm and more

The following article is adapted from The Block’s newsletter,  The Daily , which comes out on weekday afternoons.

It's Friday! Bitcoin is back above $95,000, with signs that large holders bought into the recent rally as centralized exchange outflows hit a two-year high — suggesting a re-accumulation phase may be underway.

In today's newsletter, Ark Invest outlines its 2030 $2.4 million bitcoin price projection, decentralized AI project Nous Research hits a $1 billion valuation following an investment from Paradigm, North Korean hackers reportedly create fake U.S. companies to target crypto developers and more.

Meanwhile, BlackRock's Bitcoin ETF nears 3% of the total BTC supply. Plus, Coeptis Therapeutics plunges 40% amid its merger with Z Squared to pivot into Dogecoin mining.

Let's get started.

Ark Invest outlines $2.4 million bitcoin bull case

Cathie Wood's Ark Invest recently raised its bitcoin bull case projection to $2.4 million by 2030 , up from $1.5 million, using a more aggressive, "experimental" modeling approach.

• Ark also projects a 2030 price estimate of $1.2 million in its base case and $500,000 in its bear scenario.
• The new estimates rely on a methodology that discounts illiquid coins, factoring in bitcoin's lost or long-held supply, alongside expected total addressable market and penetration rates, analyst David Puell explained in a Thursday report.
• Puell argued that traditional valuation models overlook bitcoin's scarcity due to lost coins skewing price expectations.
• Puell also pointed out that bitcoin's use as digital gold contributes most to the report's bear and base cases, while "institutional investment contributes the most to our bull case."
• The report noted that Ark's bull case projection was based on a compound annual growth rate of about 72% between the end of 2024 and the end of 2030.

Paradigm leads $50 million round for decentralized AI project Nous Research

Crypto venture capital firm Paradigm led a $50 million Series A round for Nous Research , bringing the decentralized AI startup's yet-to-be-launched token valuation to $1 billion, Tommy Shaughnessy, co-founder of Delphi Digital and founding partner at Delphi Ventures — a previous investor in the project — told The Block.

• Nous Research aims to rival centralized labs such as OpenAI by using blockchain networks like Solana to coordinate global contributors and tokenize idle computing power.
• The team also announced the testnet for its Psyche Network on Friday — an open infrastructure built on Solana that aims to enable decentralized, censorship-resistant AI model training using distributed GPU hardware.
• The fresh capital is earmarked for research and development, compute infrastructure, strategic engineering hires and new AI models.

North Korean hackers created fake US companies to target crypto developers

North Korean hackers linked to the Lazarus Group created fake companies — including U.S.-based BlockNovas and SoftGlide — to target crypto developers with malware , according to a report by cybersecurity firm Silent Push.

• The Lazarus subgroup Contagious Interview used bogus job interview lures and AI-generated employee profiles to distribute the malware.
• The operation aimed to compromise crypto developers and gain access to sensitive data and wallet credentials, echoing tactics used in the $625 million Ronin and $100 million Horizon bridge hacks.
• Lazarus Group has stolen over $3 billion in crypto since 2017, according to Chainalysis estimates, with job-based social engineering accounting for a significant portion.

Federal Reserve retracts guidance discouraging banks from engaging in crypto

The U.S. Federal Reserve has officially rescinded prior guidance on crypto and stablecoin activities that previously discouraged banks from participating, its Board of Governors announced.

• The central bank withdrew its 2022 supervisory letter that required banks to provide notification of crypto-related activities ahead of time, along with supervisory requirements for stablecoin activities issued in 2023, in favor of standard regulatory processes.
• The Federal Reserve also joined the FDIC and OCC in reversing two earlier warnings regarding the risks of banks' crypto exposure, signaling a shift toward regulatory openness.
• The crypto community largely welcomed the move, which gave banks the green light to support Bitcoin and broader digital asset innovation.

Bitwise files to launch NEAR ETF entity in Delaware

Bitwise has filed a "Bitwise NEAR ETF" trust company in Delaware , signaling an early step in the process toward applying for a spot NEAR ETF in the U.S.

• Bitwise CEO and co-founder Hunter Horsley confirmed to The Block on Friday that the firm made that Delaware filing.
• The move comes amid a broader push by Bitwise and other asset managers to launch spot crypto ETFs as the SEC adopts a friendlier stance toward the industry under the Trump administration.
• NEAR is ranked the 43rd largest cryptocurrency by market cap, rising 3% over the past 24 hours to $2.60, according to The Block's price data .

Looking ahead to next week

• Eurozone and U.S. GDP figures are out on Wednesday, alongside U.S PCE data. U.S. jobless claims numbers are due on Thursday. Eurozone CPI inflation and U.S. nonfarm payroll figures follow on Friday.
• Token 2049 kicks off in Dubai on Wednesday.
• Artificial Superintelligence Alliance, Celo, EigenLayer, Optimism and 1inch are among the crypto projects set for token unlocks .

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