Fake Vatican Notice Fuels $6.4 Million Surge in Polymarket’s Next Pope Bets

Polymarket’s prediction market for the next Pope crossed $6.4 million in total bets today after a viral hoax falsely claimed the Catholic Church intended to excommunicate gamblers.

The fake announcement, circulated on X by an account with over 240,000 followers, mimicked an official Church statement.

Polymarket Bets on the Next Pope

The viral fake post condemned platforms like Polymarket for turning the sacred papal election into a “speculative exercise” and urged the faithful to treat the Conclave as a spiritual, not financial, matter.

However, the post was quickly debunked. It lacked the Church’s formal tone and formatting, did not capitalize key terms like “Conclave” or “Papal Election,” and unusually named Polymarket directly—something highly improbable from the Vatican.

Although the rumor was fabricated, it inadvertently revealed rare internal data from Polymarket. A screenshot embedded in the hoax suggested that total wagers on the papal successor stood at $2.5 million as of April 21. That figure has since more than doubled.

Polymarket opened the “Next Pope” market in February, well before Pope Francis’ death earlier this week, as speculation around succession grew.

“The Holy See deplores the reduction of the solemn conclave to a mere speculative exercise on platforms such as Polymarket and urges the faithful to uphold the dignity of the papal election as a matter of prayerful discernment rather than profit,” claimed a fake notice published by Yoxic, an X user with over 240,000 followers.

Since the Conclave convened, trading volume has surged. In just three days, bets on the outcome have climbed by nearly 160%

The Catholic Church has largely remained indifferent to the crypto sector, aside from isolated instances like a US archdiocese accepting Bitcoin donations. There’s no indication that Church leaders are paying attention to Polymarket, especially during a pivotal moment like the election of a new Pope.

Still, the sudden spike in trading highlights the intersection of global religion and decentralized speculation. As of today, the “Next Pope” market is one of the most active on Polymarket.

Polymarket’s surge in betting volume reflects a broader trend: crypto-native platforms are becoming arenas for real-time speculation on major political, cultural, and now religious developments.

While the Catholic Church is unlikely to weigh in on Web3 anytime soon, the spike in interest reveals how digital markets increasingly reflect—and amplify—the intensity of public discourse.