Bitcoin ( BTC ) faces a battle for a key bull market trendline, which it lost for the first time in nearly a year in June.

Data from onchain analytics platform CryptoQuant shows BTC price action retesting the short-term holder (STH) realized price.

BTC price sends short-term holders into the black

Bitcoin STH activity is a key point of reference during bull markets, as the aggregate cost basis of this speculatory hodler cohort often forms long-term price support.

The same has been true since the latest bull market began in early 2023 — BTC/USD only dipped below the STH realized price for brief periods.

Now, another dip is coming to an end . STH entities, defined as those hodling a given amount of BTC for 155 days or less, are no longer doing so at a loss.

“Recently, the Bitcoin price has reclaimed the STH Realized Price,” CryptoQuant contributor J. A. Maartunn wrote in one of its Quicktake blog posts on July 18.

“This is a positive sign because short-term holders often add to their positions when Bitcoin returns to their average cost basis, creating a support level.”
Bitcoin price hits bull market trendline that last sparked 30% gains image 0 Bitcoin STH realized price. Source: CryptoQuant

Maartunn additionally noted that “since 2023, Bitcoin has reclaimed the short-term holder Realized Price twice, each time resulting in at least 30% profits.”

The exact level of the STH realized price varies according to the source, with CryptoQuant’s estimate being slightly lower than some others.

"Across the last 30-days, the Short-Term Holder (STH) cohort experienced a dramatic decline in profitability, with more than -66% of their supply moving into an unrealized loss," onchain analytics firm Glassnode wrote in the latest edition of its weekly newsletter, " The Week Onchain ," published July 16.

"This is one of the largest declines in STH profitability on record. This suggests that a significant number of 'top buyers' have seen their portfolio profitability challenged in recent weeks."

Glassnode put the STH realized price at $64,300 at the time of writing.

Bitcoin trader warns over low volumes

The area around $65,000 nonetheless remains a key target for bulls to flip to support next.

Related: BTC price all-time high in July? 5 things to know in Bitcoin this week

Among those seeing good odds of upside continuation is a well-known trader and former fund manager Aksel Kibar.

“This is the 5th month $BTCUSD is not backing off from the strong resistance around 65K,” he told followers on X (formerly Twitter) on the day.

“I see this as very bullish long-term. Sticking to a resistance and no intention of selling off is usually a sin of pending breakout.”
Bitcoin price hits bull market trendline that last sparked 30% gains image 1 BTC/USD chart. Source: Aksel Kibar/X

On daily timeframes, popular crypto trader JT argued that BTC/USD needed to break through several Fibonnaci retracement levels, currently holding it back, for a shot at new all-time highs.

Bitcoin price hits bull market trendline that last sparked 30% gains image 2 BTC/USD chart (screenshot). Source: JT/X

In a word of caution, JT added that volume was "notable" in being the opposite of that seen during the recent BTC price four-month lows near $53,000.

"Volume was extreme into this pump off of the $53K low. It has now dropped precipitously. We are now below average volume profiles," part of his commentary read .

This article does not contain investment advice or recommendations. Every investment and trading move involves risk, and readers should conduct their own research when making a decision.